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Alain Giguère

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The political climate in Quebec, November 2016

Categories: CROP in the news

Posted on 11-23-16 at 1:05 p.m.

The results of CROP’s latest monthly survey on the political climate in Quebec are hot off the press. The survey was conducted from November 16th to 21th, 2016 among 1000 panel respondents.

Click here for detailed survey results – FRENCH ONLY

Click here to read the related article in La Presse - FRENCH ONLY

By CROP

The political climate in Quebec, October 2016

Categories: CROP in the news

Posted on 10-18-16 at 1:09 p.m.

The results of CROP’s latest monthly survey on the political climate in Quebec are hot off the press. The survey was conducted from October 12th to 17th, 2016 among 1000 panel respondents.

Click here for detailed survey results – FRENCH ONLY

Click here to read the related article in La Presse - FRENCH ONLY

By CROP

The political climate in Quebec, September 2016

Categories: CROP in the news

Posted on 09-22-16 at 4:08 p.m.

The results of CROP’s latest monthly survey on the political climate in Quebec are hot off the press. The survey was conducted from September 15th to 19th, 2016 among 1000 panel respondents.

Click here for detailed survey results – FRENCH ONLY

Click here to read the related article in La Presse - FRENCH ONLY

By CROP

The political climate in Quebec, February 2016

Categories: CROP in the news

Posted on 02-23-16 at 1:05 p.m.

THE MOOD IN QUEBEC

Since the 2008 financial crisis, Quebecers have been feeling downright morose. Moreover, although we note some signs of resilience, the state of mind of Quebecers is very similar to that of a depressed person: fatalism, a feeling of lack of empowerment in life, low vitality, etc. At first, the election of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party brought a real breath of fresh air.  This spurt was all too brief and the drag towards depression has returned. As was the case before October 2015, the majority of Quebecers get the impression that the province is going in the wrong direction.

PROVINCIAL POLITICS

Our monthly update indicates that the level of satisfaction with the provincial government is around 40%, and has been at that level for a few months. Our counterparts at Léger measure the level of satisfaction at around 30%. How can this variance be explained?

At CROP, we measure the government’s performance without referring to the party or its leader. Our fellow pollsters evaluate the performance by personalizing the measure and naming the party and the leader.

Therefore, one out of ten Quebecers (the difference between 40% and 30%) approve of the provincial government’s actions, but don’t like its representatives. In marketing-speak, we would say that they have confidence in the brand’s equity, but they don’t identify with the brand’s personality.

Companies such as Bell or McDonald’s “suffer” from the same syndrome. Favourability towards them is weak, but their sales are very strong. People don’t identify with the brand, but they consume it.

The question on level of satisfaction with the government allows us to measure the size of market change. Before choosing a party, voters ask themselves if they would re-elect the current government or not. For this 10%, the issue is: “Will I vote for the Liberal Party led by Philippe Couillard because I believe they are competent, or will I vote for another party because I don’t like them and what they represent?”

For the complete results, click here (French only).

By CROP

The political climate in Quebec, January 2016

Categories: CROP in the news

Posted on 01-28-16 at 1:50 p.m.

Early 2016: Quebecers are in a better mood

The Liberals’ rise to power at the federal level has had a very positive effect on the mood of Quebecers; it’s being received as a real breath of fresh air. Since the Liberal Party was elected, nearly the majority of Quebecers feel that Quebec is going in the right direction.

The Quebec Liberal Party in good form

This sunny attitude is reflected in provincial politics, as a happy population is less likely to want a change of government and signs regarding the QLP are quite favourable. Two years from the next election, the most important indicator is the satisfaction rate with the provincial government, which is very close to 40% -- a comfortable margin for the Liberals. After a difficult 2015, a year of budget cuts and negotiations with its employees, the QLP is kicking off the year supported by its electoral base.

The PQ is slipping

As for the official opposition, it has lost 8 points in the past two months and is currently at its lowest rating since Pierre-Karl Péladeau’s debut as party leader. Moreover, note that data collection was conducted before the nightmarish last few weeks that the leader of this party has experienced. In the last few days, Mr. Péladeau has been unable to exercise his position as leader of the opposition, as he is entangled in defending his other roles, that is, either his role as controlling shareholder of Quebecor or his role as a celebrity who broadcasts his private life and is suffering setbacks in his love life.

The PQ’s descent benefits the CAQ and Québec Solidaire.

At the federal level: The Liberals are sky-high

Figures for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are stratospheric. Two out of three Quebecers feel that they are doing a good job and they have the support of half of Quebecers when it comes to voting intentions.

The NDP has an electoral base of 20%, which means it has the support to rebuild when the honeymoon is over for the Liberals.

However, at 11%, the Bloc Québécois has returned to the margins following Gilles Duceppe’s departure.

Click here to see study results in detail (French only)

By CROP